New Orleans Saints at a Crossroads with Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints at a Crossroads with Alvin Kamara

New Orleans, La. -- The New Orleans Saints find themselves at a critical juncture with their star running back, Alvin Kamara. Despite his undeniable talent and contributions to the team, Kamara's status moving forward remains uncertain, especially after he skipped the final practice of minicamp last week.

Contract Issues and Uncertainty

According to his agent, Brad Cicala, Kamara's early departure from minicamp was due to contract-related issues. This isn't the first time Kamara has taken a non-traditional approach to the offseason; he did not attend the Organized Team Activities (OTAs) this year but was present for the mandatory minicamp, a routine he has followed for several years.

Despite the current uncertainty, Kamara expressed last year that he desires to remain with the Saints for the long term. With new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak taking the reins in 2024, Kamara is expected to be a focal point of the Saints' offense. Kamara has consistently delivered high performance in past seasons, catching at least 80 passes in each of his first four seasons and scoring double-digit touchdowns in 2017, 2018, and 2020.

Comparisons with Christian McCaffrey

Kubiak, who served as the San Francisco 49ers' passing game coordinator last season, saw running back Christian McCaffrey thrive under his system. McCaffrey rushed for a career-high 1,459 yards. The 28-year-old McCaffrey, a first-round pick for the Carolina Panthers in 2017, received a lucrative two-year extension in June, which will pay him an average of $19 million and guarantee him $24 million.

Kamara, who turns 29 on July 25, is one year older than McCaffrey. According to the Roster Management System, running backs with at least four seasons of 100 rushing attempts peak at age 27 and steadily decline in yards thereafter. Rushing attempts also peak at age 27, while rushing average peaks between ages 24-26.

Factors Affecting Kamara's Performance

Several external factors have contributed to Kamara's statistical decline. He was suspended for the first three games of the 2023 season for violating the league's personal conduct policy. Additionally, the Saints struggled with offensive line issues and had trouble scoring in the red zone during the first half of the season.

Kamara's cap number of $18.55 million in 2024 is the highest on the team due to previous contract restructures in 2022 and 2023. A restructure would not provide Kamara with any new money but would temporarily create cap space by converting a portion of his base salary into a signing bonus. This move would lower his cap number for the current year while increasing it in future years.

Financial Implications and Future Outlook

If the Saints chose to release Kamara in 2025 without altering his contract, they could save anywhere from $18.9 million to $25 million against the salary cap. However, this number is influenced by Kamara's inflated $22.4 million base salary for 2025, which would likely be addressed if Kamara remains with the team.

The Saints have roughly a month before they report to training camp in Irvine, California. Notably, Kamara missed five practices at the end of the 2020 offseason before receiving a new contract. He is currently signed through the 2025 season.

Player and Coach Perspectives

Head coach Dennis Allen admitted, "I haven't had a chance to talk to him so I'm not sure why he wasn't out here for the rest of practice." Despite the uncertainty, Kamara reiterated his commitment to the team, saying, "I want a lifetime contract. I want to be here forever." He also expressed his excitement about the new offensive system, stating, "You look at the history of this offense, I'll just say it's good for the running back."

Kamara has high expectations for Kubiak's system, especially given Christian McCaffrey's success under Kubiak last year. "You watch some of the past offenses that Klint has been able to operate and most recently, you look at Christian [McCaffrey] and what he was able to do. I'm excited for that," Kamara remarked.

Quarterback Derek Carr also voiced his admiration for Kamara's unique skill set. "There was a play last year where I handed him the ball, and I remember I was like 'Well that's not open.' ... I turned around and he hit an explosive burst that I've never seen before. And when he showed up [at minicamp], I handed him the ball, and it just feels different."

Meanwhile, Klint Kubiak highlighted his ongoing communication with Kamara. "I have talked to him when he was here the last couple of days. He's been great, talked to him on the phone, even when he was gone [for OTAs]. We've been in constant communication."

As the Saints approach training camp, the looming question remains: How will the situation with Alvin Kamara unfold? Only time will tell, but for now, both the team's management and its fans will be keeping a close watch on developments.