At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins' recent struggles reached a new low as they blew a three-run lead to fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. The defeat, marked by a game-winning two-run homer from Kyle Manzardo off Griffin Jax in the bottom of the eighth, highlights a troubling trend for the Twins, who have now lost 18 of their last 27 games.
Postseason Prospects Dimming
The Twins' postseason aspirations are now hanging by a thread. As of September 5, FanGraphs put their postseason odds at a robust 95.4%, but that figure has since dwindled to 76.4%. The Twins currently cling to the third AL wild-card spot, but their lead has been reduced to a precarious 1 1/2 games.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," lamented Pablo López, capturing the mounting pressure the team feels.
Offensive Woes
The Twins' offensive struggles have played a significant role in their recent slump. In 12 of their last 27 games, the team failed to score more than three runs. They're batting just .236 during this tumultuous stretch, with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. Even more troubling, when the bases are empty, the Twins are hitting .272, making them the fourth worst in the league in such scenarios.
Rocco Baldelli, visibly frustrated, noted, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Pitching Problems
The pitching staff has not been immune to struggles either. Over the last 27 games, the Twins' bullpen has posted an alarming 5.47 ERA with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added. This is a sharp decline from their first 123 games, where the bullpen maintained a respectable 3.84 ERA and was ranked tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41).
Griffin Jax expressed the sentiment of a beleaguered pitching staff, saying, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The rotation has similarly faltered, with a 6.07 ERA over the same 27-game period, averaging just 4.38 innings per start. Additionally, the Twins have played 17 games in the past 18 days, exacerbating the fatigue and inconsistency.
Signs of Hope
Despite the challenges, there are some signs of hope. Max Kepler is expected to return soon, which could provide a much-needed boost to the lineup. Additionally, the Twins have recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, and his versatility could be a valuable asset.
Derek Falvey, discussing Irvin's potential impact, remarked, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
Competition Closing In
The Twins' competition in the standings also poses a significant threat. Both the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are just two games behind, and the Tigers have been particularly hot, going 23-10 in their last 33 games. However, the Twins do hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, which could prove decisive in the tight race for a playoff spot.
Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown some signs of life offensively, combining for 5 hits in 15 at-bats this month, including two doubles and a homer. Yet, the team knows that collective improvement is essential.
"We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," Baldelli emphasized.
As the season nears its climax, the Twins are acutely aware of the urgency of their situation. Every game, every inning, every pitch will be crucial as they strive to secure a postseason berth.