This afternoon, baseball enthusiasts are set to witness an intriguing matchup as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:20 PM ET, and both teams are coming into the game with noteworthy narratives and recent performances.
Pitching Matchup: Steele vs. Nelson
The Diamondbacks are slight favorites with a money line of -106, but the Cubs will not be an easy contender, especially with Justin Steele on the mound. Steele has been one of the bright spots for the Cubs' pitching rotation this season. With 14 starts under his belt, Steele holds a record of 2-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.71. Notably, Steele has eight quality starts this season and pitched seven scoreless innings in his most recent outing. His home ERA stands at 3.16, marginally higher than his road ERA of 2.96, reflecting consistent performance both home and away.
On the flip side, Ryne Nelson will start for the Diamondbacks, bringing in a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. Despite his higher ERA, Nelson has shown resilience, maintaining a WHIP of 1.42 and a batting average against of .296. He has also strung together six consecutive starts without giving up more than three earned runs. This kind of consistency is what the Diamondbacks will bank on as they aim to inch closer in the NL West standings.
Diamondbacks: Seeking Consistency
The Diamondbacks come into this game with a 49-48 overall record, sitting second in the NL West, trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by seven games. Arizona has been impressive on the road recently, with a 4-1 record in their last five away games. Moreover, they have also matched that record against the run line in the same span, displaying a competitive edge when playing away from home. The Diamondbacks' offense is no less potent, averaging five runs per game, the second-best mark in MLB. Players like Christian Walker, with his 22 homers, and Ketel Marte, who has hit 19 homers, add significant firepower to their lineup.
However, the Diamondbacks' recent loss to the Blue Jays, where they squandered a seven-run lead to lose 8-7, will be fresh in their memory. Yet, they have bounced back with two straight road wins, aiming to build momentum against the Cubs. Overall, Arizona games average 9.8 runs this season, contributing to an over/under record of 52-42.
Cubs: Momentum on Their Side
The Cubs, with a 47-51 record, are fifth in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 8.5 games. Despite their position, they have been on a roll recently, going 7-3 in their last ten games. Their form at home has been solid with a 4-1 record in their last five games at Wrigley Field. As a team that has been successful as home underdogs this year, boasting a 9-5 record, the Cubs pose a formidable challenge for the visiting Diamondbacks.
Offensively, the Cubs average 4.2 runs per game with a team batting average of .235. Players like Nico Hoerner, who has hit .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel, who has three homers in his last eight games, will be integral to their scoring efforts. Recent performances such as Jameson Taillon’s 5 2/3 innings allowing three earned runs in an 8-3 victory over the Cardinals highlight the Cubs' capability to deliver under pressure.
Game’s Outlook and Projections
The game features an over/under line of 7.5 runs, with both teams riding three-game over streaks. Interestingly, 84.5% of Diamondbacks games surpass the 7.5 run line, where they hold a 6-4 record when the over/under is set at this mark. The Cubs, too, have a penchant for high-scoring games, with 67.3% of their matches surpassing the 7.5 run line, holding a 12-10 record in such scenarios.
Pitching projections suggest Justin Steele is expected to notch six strikeouts, while Ryne Nelson is projected to secure four. Steele is also anticipated to concede fewer runs than Nelson. Despite this, the prediction tilts slightly in favor of the Diamondbacks, envisioning a narrow 5-4 victory.
As the Diamondbacks and Cubs gear up for this clash, fans can expect a resilient and tightly contested battle, pivotal not just for their current series but also for their season aspirations.